Tuesday, July 18, 2017
Summer trades
Commodity complex active again grains bouncing sugar, cocoa, coffee to name a few (commercial hedgers long and reducing shorts so producers willing to take the risk for higher prices), iron ore, wheat already advanced...should continue to benefit EMG and commodities oriented markets and currencies (AUD breaking multi year trends above 0.77) vs developed (where stock markets are stalling with some hiccups in china, auto loans in US...)...
Trend should be most beneficial to Brazil, MXN, Vietnam, Indonesia, and watching Nigeria carefully before it picks up momentum despite 14% inflation (commos, lower prediction inflation 11%, amazing demographics and heavy investment from china should do it)
In the rates space bouncing off multi year supports across G4, put 2/5 and 2/10 flatteners back on, receivers, swiss/euro short rates at the tight for an RV punt (ESZ8/ERZ8),
Euro above 1.16 might be the only "consensus" trade working
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