Wednesday, July 5, 2017

Are we already in a bond bear market?

Chart below shows the logarithmic total return for the 30yr bond, (I built the trendline using traditional touch points but in this case chose ones that match economical events ie lows of 2000 and 2007), chart confirms

- Bond bear market started in 2013 (Taper tantrum),
- Retested the highs (twice) like it often does (30+yr trends/pendulum swings don't reverse at once, it's like a big ship trying to get to a stop and reverse course),
- Never got back above trend
- Making lower highs from here



Now to be fair (always question charts you receive), the outright yield level still tells you the bull market is intact (now outright yield levels only tell half the story, missing coupons and carry) so Total Return is in my opinion a better measure. Now if you look at a line chart of the total return series, the 30+yr bull market is still intact, so which one to believe line chart or logarithmic? I tend to use logarithmic charts to analyze returns across time (geometric returns) and simple line charts (arithmetic returns) for underlying securities or for portfolio aggregation.







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